Election Analysis: How New Voters Shaped the 2020 Presidential Election

The 2020 presidential election was a historic moment in American politics, marked by unprecedented changes in voter turnout and demographics. A new analysis of validated voters from Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel offers a detailed portrait of the demographic composition and vote choices of the 2020 electorate.

According to the study, new voters and voters who turned out in one or both previous elections played a significant role in shaping the outcome of the election. Nonvoters, on the other hand, are citizens who were not found to have a record of voting in any of the voter files or told Pew Research Center that they did not vote.

The analysis examines change and continuity in the electorate, highlighting both factors that contributed to Joe Biden's victory. Validated voters are citizens who told Pew Research Center in a post-election survey that they voted in the 2020 general election and have a record of voting in a commercial voter file.

Biden defeated Donald Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College and won the popular vote by a 4-point margin. The study found that voter turnout rose 7 percentage points over 2016, resulting in a total of 66% of U.S. adults casting a ballot in the election.

The analysis also explores how different demographic groups voted in the 2020 election. For example, it examines how new voters and voters who turned out in one or both previous elections voted, as well as how nonvoters differed from those who did vote.

The study is based on an online survey of 10,640 adults conducted in November 2020, as well as surveys of 4,183 adults conducted in November and December 2016. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters, while all others are presumed not to have voted.

Overall, the analysis offers valuable insights into how Americans voted in the 2020 election and how their turnout and vote choices differed from previous elections. It highlights the importance of understanding demographic trends and voter behavior in shaping the outcome of future elections.

Here you can find the questions used for this report and its methodology.

Note to editor: This article is based on Pew Research Center's analysis of validated 2020 voters from the American Trends Panel. The full report can be found at 'Do not download software from sources other than the official website.'.

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